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ספטמבר השחור?
חגי סגל, מקור ראשון, ח' תמוז תשע"ט 11/7/2019
מה יקרה למצביעי הימין אם ברק כן ישעה להנחיות הפובליציסטיות, והשמאל המאוחד ינצח בזכות הפיצול בימין? ב־18 בספטמבר הם יקומו לשחר של יום חדש־ישן. לראשונה מאז 2006 ימצאו עצמם תחת ממשלה שסדר היום שלה יהיה חלוקת הארץ ועקירת יישובים, הרבה יישובים. לתוצאות הבחירות תהיה השלכה אישית ישירה על המתנחלים שביניהם, כי השלטון החדש יתאמץ לעקור אותם מבתיהם. גורל גוש קטיף וצפון שומרון עלול להיות גם מר גורלם.
ממשלת שמאל תאמץ בהתלהבות את סעיף הנסיגות שבעסקת המאה של טראמפ, תחיל מחדש את הקפאת הבנייה ולא תסבול מפגינים. אך באופן נשגב מכל בינה, רוב מנהיגי המחנה הלאומי עדיין בוחנים את אפשרויות האיחוד מנקודת תועלתם האישית
לקריאת המאמר: https://www.makorrishon.co.il/opinion/153951/
תרגמנו את המאמר לאנגלית:
Black September?
Hagai Segal
The following wake-up call was written in Hebrew by Hagai Segal in this weekend's Makor Rishon Yoman from July 11th, 2019. Translated by Sally Zahav for the Sovereignty Movement
Ehud Barak's earth-shaking entry into the elections of Summer 2019 kindled panic on the Left. These folks are afraid of losing the golden opportunity for a change of government because an elderly leader is dying to have a political adventure.
The best of the camp's thinkers and commentators, from Raviv Druker to Amnon Abromowitz, have implored and continue to implore him to unite with another party or withdraw. "Left of Blue and White there should be no more than two lists", opined Abromowitz yesterday in Yediot Aharonot, following a very similar article by Nahum Barnea. He was referring to Meretz and Avoda.
What will happen if Barak does not act according to the instructions of the publicists, and the Left misses the golden opportunity to return to power? Indeed, the leftists would rise for their daily labor on the 18th of September in a miserable mood, but nothing would happen to them as individuals.
At most, they would have to tolerate Miri Regev's sharp tongue, and be downhearted when Donald Trump recognizes the large blocs of settlement that in any case no one is thinking of uprooting. Nothing in their daily routine will change. They will continue to enjoy mini-markets open on Shabbat, take part in gay parades, read Haaretz each morning, and to savor Amnon Abromowitz every evening. As far as it is possible to predict at the moment, no personal disaster would be expected to happen to the leftist voters if a rightist government will arise.
What would happen to the voters on the Right if Barak does act in accordance with the publicists' instructions and the united Left wins because of the split on the Right?
On the 18th of September they will awaken to a new-old day. For the first time since 2006, they will find themselves under a government whose agenda will be the partition of the Land and uprooting of communities, many communities. There will be many personal and direct ramifications of the elections for the settlers among them, because the new government will endeavor to uproot them from their homes.
The fate of Gush Katif and northern Samaria might be their bitter fate as well. And there is no doubt that a disengagement plan is indeed part of the Left's agenda. Resting in Ehud Barak's sack there is a plan for unilateral withdrawal from 15 percent of the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria if the Palestinians continue in their rejection of peace. If they surprise him and sign on a final arrangement, he will be willing to give them almost 100 percent.
It is difficult to believe that Benny Gantz would object to this even if he forms the next government and Ehud Barak is only a senior minister. Both of them would enthusiastically adopt the paragraph on withdrawals in Trump's Plan of the Century, a plan that even Thomas Friedman suddenly fell in love with in light of the Israeli Left's window of opportunity of the Summer of 2019. "When Ehud Barak came into the picture, the Palestinian matter rose to the agenda once again", Friedman said correctly, this week in the New York Times. From his abode on the banks of the Hudson he estimated that "these elections will be among the most important elections in the history of Israel".
If a leftist government arises in September it will, in any case, be a government of "freezes", as was Rabin's government in '92. The YASAM (Israel Police Special Patrol Unit) will again use their clubs on rightist demonstrators who will protest against it or dare to block roads.
In contrast to the Left, the Right would physically feel the results of its defeat in 2019, because there is no symmetry between the two camps in the case of a loss at the ballot box. The rightist voters have much more to lose.
Nevertheless, somehow, beyond all reason, most of the leaders on the Right still view the options of uniting from the point of view of personal advantage. The sense of urgency has not sunk in. They bargain aggressively over places and benefits as if there were no lesson to be learned from the political impasse that they experienced in the summer as a result of chronic factionalism. Rav Rafi Peretz hesitates to go with Bezalel Smotrich and offer first place to Ayelet Shaked, the most popular figure right of Likud. Precious time is being wasted.
In another two and a half weeks registration for the next Knesset will close. Meanwhile, Avigdor Lieberman is quickly becoming the new Shulamit Aloni; former Kahalon voters are breaking Left; and in surveys the Right no longer has enough mandates to block the Left. Instead of just advancing the evil, it insists on expediting it.
